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Transcript/ScriptUkraine Grain Exports – Bedratenko
HEAD: Crisis Over Ukraine Threatens Global Grain Supply
TEASER: Ukraine exports grain to markets in Middle East, Asia
PUBLISHED: 02/18/2022 at 9am
BYLINE: Oksana Bedratenko
DATELINE: Washington
CAMERA: Oleksii Osyka
VIDEO EDITOR: Oleksii Osyka
PRODUCER:
SCRIPT EDITORS: KE(1st), BR
VIDEO FROM: VOA
TYPE: TVPKG
TRT: 2:42
VIDEO APPROVER'S INITIALS: Reifenrath
UPDATE: ))
((INTRO))
[[Ukraine is a significant player in global food security. But the possibility of a Russian military invasion and naval deployment in the Black Sea threatens to disrupt Ukrainian grain exports – potentially affecting global supplies. Oksana Bedratenko filed this report, narrated by Anna Rice.]]
((NARRATION))
Ukraine produces over six percent of the world’s grain supply, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity. That’s why there could be a ripple effect felt worldwide if war breaks out between Russia and Ukraine, says food analyst Alex Smith.
((Alex Smith, Breakthrough Institute)) ((Mandatory Courtesy: Skype ))
“The countries that are the most dependent on Ukrainian wheat were Lebanon - about 50% of their total wheat consumption in 2020 came from Ukraine… Libya was a significant number and so was Yemen. But all three of them have had significant conflicts recently, are already dealing with high food prices and already dealing with significant food insecurities.”
((NARRATION))
If grain supply disruptions were to occur now, it would shock world markets, say experts.
((Louise Gartner, Spectrum Commodities))
((Mandatory Courtesy: Skype))
“For Ukraine, they have a lot of sales on the books to countries like China and other major importers. If that were to be disrupted, it causes a significant dislocation in the flow.”
((NARRATION))
And with an ongoing drought in South America, the world depends even more on other sources, like Ukrainian wheat.
((Louise Gartner, Spectrum Commodities))
((Mandatory Courtesy: Skype))
“As it happens, the other major producers are South America, Brazil and Argentina. They are going through a drought situation… So, these next couple months in front of us is already in a tight corn and wheat supply situation. And if you cut off imports or disrupt that flow of grain from a major region, that would have huge impacts. It would send prices sharply higher.”
((NARRATION))
Food analyst Smith believes a disruption in the supply of Ukrainian grain might benefit Russia since countries like China might turn to Russia to get grain.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and China’s President Xi Jinping recently signed an agreement in which China agreed to allow imports of wheat and barley from all regions of Russia.
((Alex Smith, Breakthrough Institute)) ((Mandatory Courtesy: Skype))
“I think there's potential that Russia is a significant wheat producer as well. Agriculturally, it is a large exporter in general. I think that they definitely have capacity to fill in some of this scarcity that could come from a Russia-Ukraine conflict.”
((NARRATION))
Analysts hope a disruption in grain supplies can be avoided – otherwise a food crisis could be a real possibility, not only in the region, but far beyond.
((For Oksana Bedratenko in Washington, Anna Rice, VOA News))
NewsML Media TopicsPolitics, Economy, Business and Finance
Topic TagsGrain
Ukraine
NetworkVOA
Embargo DateFebruary 18, 2022 15:49 EST
Brand / Language ServiceVoice of America - English
