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Transcript/Script((PLAYBOOK SLUG: TURKEY POLITICAL FUTURE
HEADLINE: Local election results change Turkey’s political landscape
TEASER: Erdogan’s shock defeat in nationwide local elections signals a new direction for Turkey, analysts say
PUBLISHED AT: 04/03/2024 at 1:29 pm
BYLINE: Dorian Jones
CONTRIBUTOR:
DATELINE: Istanbul
VIDEOGRAPHER: Agency, Courtesy, Berke Bas DO NOT USE NAME FOR SECURITY REASONS.
PRODUCER:
SCRIPT EDITORS: LR, sb
VIDEO SOURCE (S): VOA original, CHP party, Reuters, AK Party.
PLATFORMS: WEB __ TV _x_ RADIO _x_
TRT: 3:10
VID APPROVED BY: sb
TYPE: TVR
UPDATE: DO NOT USE BERKE BAS NAME FOR SECURITY REASONS.))
((INTRO)) [[Turkey's nationwide local elections this week dealt Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ruling AK Party its worst electoral defeat, signaling what analysts say is a momentous change in Turkey’s political direction. Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul.]]
((VIDEO SHOT: CHP CELEBRATIONS-Reuters))
((NARRATOR))
Turkey's main opposition CHP party's sweeping gains in nationwide local elections are a significant reversal in the party's fortunes, analysts say, considering President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s reelection last year.
[[RADIO VERSION: Can Selcuki is the head of Istanbul Economics Research, a polling firm.]]
((Can Selcuki, Istanbul Economics Research - MALE IN ENGLISH - ON CAMERA-VOA ORIGINAL))
“After the loss of the May elections for the opposition, everybody has thought that the opposition was in a state of despair. But that doesn't seem to be the case, and it's a real turning point for Turkish political landscape.”
((VIDEO SHOT: ERDOGAN RALLY-
((Mandatory cg, AK Party))
((NARRATOR))
Erdogan put himself at the forefront, leading the campaign to retake Istanbul from incumbent mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
((VIDEO SHOT: IMAMOGLU VICTORY))
((Mandatory cg, CHP Party))
((NARRATOR))
But Imamoglu extended his control of the city, capturing strongholds of Erdogan's AK party,
((BEYOGLU – Original))
... including the Beyoglu district, where Erdogan grew up and had a personal power base.
((NARRATOR))
Near 70% inflation and 50% interest rates, analysts say, were key factors in AK Party's defeat.
((VIDEO SHOT: IMAMOGLU CAMPAIGINING-ORIGINAL))
((NARRATOR))
Analysts say Imamoglu has portrayed his leadership as inclusive, and analysts say that has been a factor in his success, burnishing his credentials as a potential presidential challenger.
((VIDEO SHOT: ANKARA RALLY-REUTERS))
((NARRATOR))
Ankara’s mayor, Mansur Yavas of the CHP, also secured a landslide victory. Analysts say the two mayors have managed to win over religious voters, extending their party’s reach beyond its staunchly secular base.
Experts say this opens the door to success for them in parts of Turkey that have been Erdogan strongholds, such as Anatolia.
[[RADIO VERSION: Istar Gozaydin is a specialist on Turkish religion and state relations at Istanbul's Istinye University.]]
((Istar Gozaydin, Istinye University - Female in English))
“These are places that I considered to be religiously conservative, or at least conservative, and CHP has never been successful in those places before. And that's also valid for Central Anatolia. Central Anatolia is usually much more nationalist, much more religiously sensitive, but for the first time they've been successful.”
((VIDEO SHOT: ELECTORAL TURKEY MAP-Twitter
((Mandatory CG: X / @izafibilgi))
((NARRATOR))
The March 31st local elections have changed Turkey's electoral map, with the CHP controlling many provincial cities for the first time in a generation.
((BEYOGLU TOWN HALL-ORIGINAL))
Analysts say that with local mayors having considerable power to shape daily life, the opposition has a major opportunity.
[[RADIO VERSION: Can Selcuki of Istanbul Economics Research:]]
((Can Selcuki, Istanbul Economics Research - MALE IN ENGLISH - ON CAMERA-VOA ORIGINAL))
“CHP has been granted a chance to show how they govern, for the next five years. So, I think it's a huge opportunity for the main opposition to showcase their governing skills, in parts of the country where they could (previously) never win elections.”
((VIDEO SHOT: BEYOGLU STREETS-ORIGINAL))
((NARRATOR))
Analysts say the performance of CHP in these mayoral races could determine the outcome of the 2028 presidential elections. At a time when Erdogan’s party is struggling to tame rampant inflation, they say that prospect appears to be real.
((Dorian Jones, VOA News, Istanbul))
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