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[[Turkish voters will cast ballots in the country's presidential runoff election on Sunday (May 28). Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the front-runner after narrowly scoring an outright win in the first round and securing a majority in parliament. But analysts say challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu has an outside chance if he can galvanize his voting base. Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul.]
Content TypePackage
LanguageEnglish
Transcript/ScriptTURKEY RUNOFF PREVIEW
HEADLINE: Turkey’s Erdogan Faces Unprecedented Presidential Runoff
TEASER: Longtime Turkish leader gains momentum ahead of Sunday's presidential runoff, but analysts say last-minute turnout will be key
PUBLISHED AT: 05/25/2023 at 1:50pm
BYLINE: Dorian Jones
CONTRIBUTOR:
DATELINE: Istanbul
VIDEOGRAPHER: Berke Bas DO NOT USE NAME FOR SECURITY REASONS, AGENCY, COURTESY
PRODUCER:
SCRIPT EDITORS: LR, sv
VIDEO SOURCE (S): VOA ORIGINAL, REUTERS, CHP, BABALA TV, AKP
PLATFORMS: WEB __ TV _x_ RADIO __
TRT: 3:04
VID APPROVED BY: MAS
TYPE: TVPKG
UPDATE: DO NOT USE Berke Bas NAME FOR SECURITY REASONS.))
((INTRO))
[[Turkish voters will cast ballots in the country's presidential runoff election on Sunday (May 28). Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the front-runner after narrowly scoring an outright win in the first round and securing a majority in parliament. But analysts say challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu has an outside chance if he can galvanize his voting base. Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul.]]
((NARRATOR))
With incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan securing a surprise first-round win as well as winning parliamentary elections, the political momentum analysts say has shifted away from Kemal Kilicdaroglu ahead of Sunday's presidential runoff.
[[Radio version: Can Selcuki is the head of Istanbul Economics Research, an opinion poll company.]]
((Can Selcuki, Istanbul Economics Research - MALE IN ENGLISH - ON CAMERA-VOA ORIGINAL))
“Erdogan obviously enjoys the 49.5 that he got in the first round but also the parliamentary majority. So, these are very big motivational factors going into the second round, which renders him the likely winner of the second round. Kilicdaroglu, on the other hand, is trying to motivate his supporters, and increase mobilization, but at the same time mitigate concerns over his nationalistic, you know, security policies.”
((NARRATOR))
Both presidential runoff candidates are targeting nationalist voters, after the surprisingly strong showing of hardline nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan in the first round.
((Mandatory cg CHP))
Kilicdaroglu hopes to capitalize on nationalist sentiments...
((end courtesy))
and has, since the first round, emphasized his commitment to deport millions of Syrian refugees.
But analysts warn such a move is risky, given until now, his focus was democratic reform.
[[RADIO VERSION: Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution in Washington.]]
((Asli Aydintasbas, Brookings Institution-VOA ORIGINAL ((Female in English))
((ZOOM))
“Kilicdaroglu probably is interested in getting some of those Sinan Ogan supporters, supporters of the third-party candidate who are driven by TikTok or social media and nationalism, of course. So, he's lurching a little more in that direction. The problem is these things are very dangerous, especially if you do these rapid these adjustments and changes at the last minute.”
(Mandatory cg AKP))
((NARRATOR))
Another challenge for Kilicdaroglu is that Erdogan's AKP Party-led coalition is set to secure an absolute majority
((end courtesy))
in parliament, a sign that voters want to stay the course.
[[Radio version: Can Selcuki of Istanbul Economics Research.]]
((Can Selcuki, Istanbul Economics Research - MALE IN ENGLISH - ON CAMERA-VOA ORIGINAL))
“The government side obviously is advocating for consistency, whereas the opposition is advocating for balance. Often in the past we've seen that Turkish electorate usually chooses consistency over the notion of balance.”
(Mandatory cg BABALA TV)) ((Mandatory YouTube logo))
((NARRATOR))
Kilicdaroglu sought to gain political traction by appearing on a popular YouTube show for four hours, taking audience questions.
((end courtesy))
((NARRATOR))
With Erdogan voters turning out in larger numbers than Kilicdaroglu's in their respective strongholds, Kilicdaroglu's chances now depend on how many of his supporters he can manage to turn out.
[[RADIO VERSION: Atilla Yesilada is a Turkey analyst for GlobalSource Partners.]]
((Atilla Yesilada, Global Source Partners-VOA ORIGINAL ((male in English))
((ZOOM))
“The proximity of another Erdogan victory and what might happen to their future and to their children's future may force them to dispel their doubts and complaints about Kilicdaroglu and report to the poll. That's the only thing that can change the facts on the ground.”
((NARRATOR))
With political momentum appearing to be with Erdogan, analysts say Kilicdaroglu needs to find a way to reenergize his supporters at the last minute.
((Dorian Jones, for VOA News, Istanbul))
NewsML Media TopicsArts, Culture, Entertainment and Media
NetworkVOA
Location (dateline)
Istanbul
Embargo DateMay 25, 2023 16:45 EDT
Byline
Dorian Jones, for VOA News
Brand / Language ServiceVoice of America - English
