VISUAL EXPLAINER UKR 1 YR Energy
Metadata
- VISUAL EXPLAINER UKR 1 YR Energy
- February 23, 2023
- Content Type Package
- Language English
- Transcript/Script VISUAL EXPLAINER UKR 1 YR Energy HEADLINE: Russia's Ukraine War Shakes Up the Energy World, But Not How Moscow Wants PUBLISHED: 2/23/2023 at 2:57p AVAILABLE FOR: SOCIAL ___ WEB _x__ WRITER/PRODUCER: Steve Baragona SCRIPT EDITOR: MAS, Sharon Shahid APPROVED BY: SV, Jepsen SOURCES: link specific sources to each detail, meaning if you are pulling a specific piece of information from a report, link to that specific page of the report, etc. FRAME.IO LINK: [this is added when the slides are ready for publication] )) ((INTRO)) Moscow's invasion of Ukraine a year ago has had profound impacts on how the world powers itself. ((GRAPHIC INTRO)) If there is a silver lining to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, maybe this is it: It is speeding up the world's transition to cleaner power. The disruption it has caused in world oil and gas markets has many countries backing away from imported fossil fuels and pushing ahead with locally generated renewable power. Ironically, Moscow's war will likely shrink the market for its fossil fuel exports. ((GRAPHIC: RUSSIA OIL & GAS PRODUCTION)) Russia is the world's second-largest natural gas producer and its oil production is roughly tied for second with Saudi Arabia. ((GRAPHIC: EUROPE RUSSIA IMPORTS)) Before the war, Europe was one of its biggest customers. The continent got about a quarter of its oil and two-fifths of its natural gas from Russia. ((Source: Eurostat)) ((GRAPHIC: RUSSIA GAS DECLINE)) After the invasion, Europe made the painful decision to sanction Russia's energy exports. Moscow then tightened the valves on its gas pipelines. ((Source: Bruegel)) That left Europe scrambling to fill a big energy gap. ((VIDEO: EUROPE DRY DAMS / FRANCE NUCLEAR)) To make matters worse, a severe drought dried up hydropower. And nearly half of France's nuclear plants were powered down for emergency maintenance. ((REPORTER ON CAMERA)) ((Steve Baragona, VOA News)) Europe had a dilemma. The continent has ambitious goals to cut greenhouse gas emissions and fight climate change. So how much would it have to rely on fossil fuels to make up for Russian gas? ((GRAPHIC: COAL MAP)) Operators plugged in 26 coal-fired power plants that had been offline or were scheduled to close. ((GRAPHIC: LNG MAP)) And Europe rushed into service new facilities to import liquefied natural gas, or LNG. ((Gas Infrastructure Europe)) ((GRAPHIC: EMISSIONS)) By year's end, Europe's greenhouse gas emissions from the power sector were up about 4% from 2021. ((Source: Ember)) That's not good. But it could have been worse. ((VIDEO: SOLAR INSTALLATION)) A big growth in renewables put a lid on rising emissions. ((GRAPHIC: SOLAR GRAPH)) Solar installations smashed records in Europe. ((GRAPHIC: RENEWABLES VS. FOSSILS GRAPH)) Power from solar and wind increased more than two-and-a-half times as much as coal power did. ((GRAPHIC: POWER GRAPH)) For the first time ever, solar and wind power together generated more electricity in Europe last year than either coal or gas. ((REPORTER ON CAMERA)) And Europe's greenhouse gas bump should be short-lived. Those revived coal plants are set to shut down again in the next few years. And the crisis also may have accelerated the move away from gas. Take home heating, for example. Record numbers of European homeowners ditched gas furnaces for electric heat pumps. ((GRAPHIC: HEAT PUMP GRAPH)) Installations jumped 53% in Germany and more than doubled in Poland last year. ((REPORTER ON CAMERA)) The fallout from the war has spread far beyond Europe. High oil and gas prices have put energy security back at the top of national agendas. This time, though, fossil fuels are not the only option. Wind and solar power have gotten cheaper than coal and gas in most places. So, renewables look better than ever. At the same time, major new clean-energy policies in the United States and China are helping push the transition forward. ((GRAPHIC: BP OUTLOOK)) Experts have had to revise their forecasts. In its latest outlook, energy giant BP expects about 5% more renewable power in 2035 than it did last year. And it lowered its expectations for coal by 3%, natural gas by 6% and oil by 5.5%. ((Source: BP)) Other estimates give renewables an even bigger boost. ((REPORTER ON CAMERA)) ((Steve Baragona, VOA News)) None of this is good news for Russia in the long run. In the short term, Moscow did rake in the cash on high energy prices. ((GRAPH: RUSSIA CURRENT ACCOUNT)) Russia made twice as much money last year as in 2021. ((Source: Bank of Russia)) ((GRAPHIC: URALS VS. BRENT)) But with major buyers shunning Russian oil, the price took a dive. Since the invasion, a barrel of Urals crude sells for about $30 less than the benchmark Brent crude. ((GRAPHIC: RUSSIAN OIL BUYERS)) Russia is still producing about as much oil as it did before the war. That's because as Europe cut back, India went bargain hunting. The country went from rarely buying Russian oil to one of Moscow's biggest customers, on a par with China. ((Source: Kpler, personal communication)) But the $30-per-barrel discount means Russia is making less money from oil. And with gas deliveries way down, the Finance Ministry says energy revenues are about half what they were last year. ((https://tass.com/oil-gas-industry/1572379 )) In the coming years, the market for Russian oil and gas is set to shrink. BP lowered the amount of oil and gas that Europe, China and India together will need in 2050 by about 10% compared to last year's forecast. ((Source: BP)) Whatever happens on the battlefield, Russia's energy industry is taking a hit. It may not be a death blow, but it is probably not the outcome Moscow wanted.
- NewsML Media Topics Arts, Culture, Entertainment and Media
- Network VOA
- Embargo Date February 23, 2023 18:09 EST
- Byline Steve Baragona
- Brand / Language Service Voice of America - English